Dylan Patel – Anthropic & OpenAI will have most of the world’s compute by 2028

SemiAnalysis founder Dylan Patel argues that Anthropic and OpenAI could command most usable AI computing capacity by the end of 2028 if current trends continue. The mechanism is economic: labs that earn more from each unit of capacity can pay more for new supply, while newer processors contribute disproportionately to total computational capability.

In the August 25 interview, capacity serving a lab's models counts toward that lab even when another company owns the infrastructure. The forecast therefore concerns who uses and monetizes the capacity. It depends on continued growth in the labs' purchasing power and access to new hardware, rather than an announced transfer of ownership.