Dylan Patel – Two labs will soon control most of the world's workforce

SemiAnalysis's Dylan Patel told Dwarkesh Patel in an interview why he expects OpenAI and Anthropic to hold most of the world's usable AI computing power by the end of 2028. He said OpenAI began the year around 2 gigawatts and Anthropic under 2, with both ending above 5. About 30 percent of compute added that year goes to them, and given signed contracts he put the next year at 40 to 50 percent.

Dwarkesh noted that tripling lab compute each year would outrun world supply. Patel replied that the world adds more capacity each year (his figures were roughly 30, 50 and 70 gigawatts) and new chips deliver three to five times the performance per watt of the previous generation, so half of new capacity going to two labs is worth more than half in raw power. Everything here is his projection from estimates and deals as he describes them, not settled fact.