KellyBench

What it can do

• Simulate a full Premier League season for betting evaluation

  Season parameters and betting constraints → Complete season simulation with match outcomes

• Test language model betting strategies

  Language model and betting parameters → Performance metrics and profit/loss results

• Generate quantitative betting strategies

  Match data and team statistics → Betting recommendations with stake amounts

• Evaluate sequential decision-making performance

  Model decisions over time series → Decision quality analysis and consistency metrics

• Track model performance under uncertainty

  Model predictions and actual outcomes → Uncertainty handling assessment and accuracy scores

• Benchmark frontier language models

  Multiple language models → Comparative performance rankings and analysis

Why it made the leaderboard

Long-horizon eval where models develop betting strategies across a full Premier League season — every frontier model tested lost money, exposing how weak sequential decision-making under uncertainty still is.

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