Progress Index: quantifying frontier pace and the open-weights lag

We’ve announced the Artificial Analysis Progress Index: a single capability scale for every language model since 2022, launched alongside Intelligence Index v5 The Intelligence Index is still our primary measure of current model intelligence. It uses the evaluations most relevant to developers today, so its mix changes as evaluations are added and retired, and scores from different versions can’t be compared. The Progress Index is built for comparisons across time. It uses item response theory, a statistical method used to score standardized tests, to estimate one general capability score for each model from the underlying tasks in all our evaluations, including those that are retired or excluded from the Intelligence Index. Use the Intelligence Index to choose a model today. Use the Progress Index to see how capability has changed over time. The Progress Index builds on prior work placing models on a single capability scale, in particular @EpochAIResearch's Epoch Capabilities Index and the capability scale @AnthropicAI published in its Claude Mythos Preview system card. Key takeaways: ➤ Since reasoning models arrived, the frontier has risen ~65 to 70 points a year, about…