Clip transcript
out how can smart people have like such different opinions. There's cult one. Um, AI is not just going well, it's going insanely well. Every single benchmark we surpass human level, and as far as we can measure, we are continuously surpassing human performance. You know, like basically every new benchmark, and it's only getting faster and accelerating. You have uh, you know, every Can I see my mouse? Excellent. Basically every like NLP benchmark is getting crushed, and not only that, allegedly the time that LLMs can operate autonomously is growing exponentially. On the other hand, you have AI is not just going poorly, it's going like insanely poorly. AI is a bubble, it's basically generating no value, it's just circular financing deals, etc., etc. And, you know, if AI is so great, why is why is everything just like a chat app right now? Or like a cloud go thing? Um, and a a lot of the people have actually kind of given up on what was the old guard's terminology of a transformative AI revolution. People aren't really talking about that anymore. They're talking about it being like massively valuable like B2B SaaS. So, the only thing that everyone agrees on is like there's just a these extreme points of view and like nothing in between. And everyone basically thinks AI is insane, but like for different reasons. And what I would want to talk about is what is the sane view of AI? Let's take all the evidence of like cult one, it's going super well. Take all the evidence of cult two, it's going super poorly. Like, uh, you know, map them out and try to explain what what what explains that divide. Like, what is the simplest possible explanation of why some things are too good to be true, and some things are not just bad, they are so bad that we would still employ human workers to do like, you know, like kind of like dumb tasks. Um, no offense to any of them. A lot of