Transcript
Every few years, someone declares software dead. This time, it's AI doing the killing. Now that you can walk up to Claude Code, Microsoft Copilot, or OpenAI Codex and say “make me a CRM system,” why would anyone pay for enterprise software again?
Just two weeks ago, a single tweet about Claude Code was enough to wipe five percent off SaaS stocks. I understand the instinct. But I think the inference most people are drawing is wrong, and it’s worth being precise about exactly where the logic breaks down.
To start: no, I haven’t totally forgotten about the cognitive industrial revolution. It’s true that the exact model that has defined SaaS for the past 20 years is no longer sustainable. The world for SaaS companies was beautiful when you could charge 40% or 50% margins because your product was the only thing that met enough of a customer’s requirements, while remaining stable enough for a scaling business.
Now, the moat around SaaS has weakened. The defensibility that comes from sheer engineering labor is no longer the fortress it once was. But the critical distinction is that a reduction of margins—or an erosion of moat—is not the same as being dead. The leap from “the old SaaS model is being disrupted” to “no one will sell software anymore” is a distinct flavor of foolishness.
The idea that a company will simply prompt its way to a fully functional HR system, accounts payable platform, or enterprise CRM anytime soon is completely off base, even if you ignore the compliance and security nightmare that would ensue if someone did vibecode their company’s unique payroll platform.
Most of the arguments here fundamentally misunderstand software businesses as just lines of code you generate once. They are living systems that require maintenance, verification, security, compliance, and ongoing refinement.
What is genuinely true (and exciting) is that software must now incorporate AI generativity as a core feature of its value proposition. The new competitive moat isn’t built from how well a software system’s AI is tuned to the specific needs of its category. A CRM company that ships a deeply intelligent set of agents that iteratively refine your sales workflow, that understands your pipeline more comprehensively than any human analyst, that comes with powerful backend libraries purpose-built for that domain has an extremely well-crafted moat. The incumbents who understand this will evolve. The ones who don’t will be the ones who actually die. But even they will die more slowly than most assume.
The business model will shift, too. We may see more models where customers prepay token budgets much like a utility. For example, a CRM company that reimagines its economic model around compute consumption and scale. We’ve experienced business model transitions like this before. We went from on-premises software to cloud SaaS and the world didn’t end; it expanded. We’re making a similar transition now, from cloud to AI-native.
Also, it’s important to note: the classic moats—network effects, customer relationships, data advantages—don’t disappear. Unique data sources become more valuable when AI can actually build upon them. Customer lock-in takes on new meaning when an AI system has been trained and tuned on years of a company’s specific workflows. And Jevons’ Paradox will do what it always does… as the cost of building software drops dramatically, the demand for software will expand dramatically.
So no, SaaS isn’t dead. The players are still at the table. Though, the old playbook is fading, and those who can’t keep up will as well. That’s an important distinction.