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🔬 An Oscar, Two Asteroids, and the Algorithm in Your sklearn: John Platt on AI for Science

Source
latent.space
Author
Brandon Anderson
Date

Context

Google's Empirical Research Assistance (ERA) system starts with a scientific problem that can be scored. A researcher supplies the problem, data and rule; the system generates code, tests alternatives and uses their results to choose which approaches to explore further. Google's technical account describes this as a tree search over candidate programs. It presents the work as a research paper with shared top solutions, and the interview write-up below notes ERA is not currently a Google product.

The central caution in researcher John Platt's interview write-up is that the score is only a stand-in for the science. The write-up reports Platt's view that ERA produces predictive models and that scientists must make sure they are truly descriptive of the phenomenon. It illustrates the risk with Goodhart's law: a metric that becomes a target stops being a good measure, as when contest entrants exploited a labeling error. Automating the search for better-scoring code leaves that judgment with the scientist.

Key takeaways · AI-distilled
  • ERA (Google's Empirical Research Assistance) treats scientific problems as scoreable tasks: an keeps a tree of past experiment notebooks and picks which to mutate via an Upper Confidence Bound rule, proposing about ten mutations per iteration.
  • Platt says ERA only started working well after a step change between Gemini 2.0 and 2.5, going from not functioning to functioning great, since this kind of evolutionary search needs the underlying model to actually know where to look.
  • Using ERA, Platt's team found contrails, the ice-crystal trails from jet exhaust, account for about 1% of human-induced global warming; a single gram of engine exhaust can seed roughly ten kilograms of ice crystals.
  • The fix for contrails, flying a level or two lower through ice-supersaturated air, was already known, but modeling how much warming it actually prevented stumped Platt's team for two years until ERA found a simpler model accounting for reflected sunlight they had missed.
  • Platt warns ERA is a power tool that can slice your fingers off: in a Google contrail-detection Kaggle competition, winning entrants exploited a half-pixel labeling error rather than solving the underlying problem, illustrating Goodhart's law in practice.
Terms in this piece · Glossary
  • eval — A repeatable test for AI quality — a set of tasks plus scoring — used the way software teams use test suites, because model output is too variable to judge by eyeballing.
  • LLM — A large language model — the neural network behind tools like Claude and ChatGPT, trained on huge amounts of text to predict what comes next.
Read the source www.latent.space
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