AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo
Source
Dwarkesh Patel
Author
Dwarkesh Patel
Date
Why it matters
A rigorous, month-by-month scenario model of AI capability progression from a former OpenAI researcher and a sharp critic, useful for engineers who want to pressure-test their assumptions about timelines, misalignment risk, and what superintelligence could and couldn't accelerate.
Key quotes
“most people following the field have underestimated the pace of AI progress and underestimated the pace of AI diffusion into the world”
Daniel Kokotajlo
“I think in order to have nothing ever happen, you actually need a lot to happen.”
Scott Alexander
“if you’re wondering why hasn’t the AI done this, ask yourself, did the training environment train it to do this? And often the answer is no.”
Daniel Kokotajlo
“it might be useful to think of our timelines as being like 2070, 2100. It’s just that the last 50 to 70 years of that all happened during the year 2027 to 2028”
