AGI is still 30 years away — Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

Automating a recognizable task does not establish that an AI can perform someone's whole job. AI forecasters Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu use that distinction to explain their longer timelines. Erdil's roughly 2045 estimate concerns a system capable of everything a remote worker could do; Besiroglu expects that milestone somewhat earlier. They argue that jobs demand a wider combination of capabilities than their most visible tasks suggest. This also differs from the narrower starting point in the AI 2027 scenario: automating AI research sufficiently to accelerate further progress.

“It’s kind of like calling the Industrial Revolution a horsepower explosion.”

Tamay Besiroglu

“Nobody gets a job where they’re paid to book flights. That’s not a task.”

Ege Erdil

“But that doesn’t stop it from getting stuck in Mount Moon for 48 hours.”

Ege Erdil

“has a reasoning model ever come up with a math concept that even seems slightly interesting to a human mathematician? And I’ve never seen that.”

Ege Erdil

“I think if you could put the competences that the animals have into AI systems, that might just already get you to AGI already.”

Ege Erdil