AGI is still 30 years away — Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu
Source
Dwarkesh Patel
Author
Dwarkesh Patel
Date
Terms in this piece · Glossary
alignment — The work of making AI systems actually pursue what their builders and users intend, rather than something subtly or dangerously different.
calibration — How well a model's confidence matches reality — a calibrated model saying "90% sure" is right about 90% of the time.
Why it matters
A rigorous counter-narrative from AI forecasters arguing AGI is decades out and the intelligence-explosion framing is flawed, while predicting explosive economic growth — useful calibrationHow well a model's confidence matches reality — a calibrated model saying "90% sure" is right about 90% of the time.Full definition → for engineers planning around AI capability timelines rather than following hype.
Key quotes
“It’s kind of like calling the Industrial Revolution a horsepower explosion.”
Tamay Besiroglu
“Nobody gets a job where they’re paid to book flights. That’s not a task.”
Ege Erdil
“But that doesn’t stop it from getting stuck in Mount Moon for 48 hours.”
Ege Erdil
“has a reasoning model ever come up with a math concept that even seems slightly interesting to a human mathematician? And I’ve never seen that.”
Ege Erdil
“I think if you could put the competences that the animals have into AI systems, that might just already get you to AGI already.”
