A grounded, contrarian case on AGI timelines that pinpoints concrete model limitations (like the lack of continual/on-the-job learning) so engineers can calibrate expectations about what near-term AI can actually automate.
I’ve had a lot of discussions on my podcast where we haggle out timelines to AGI.
Some guests think it’s 20 years away - others 2 years .
Here’s an audio version of where my thoughts stand as of June 2025.
If you want to read the original post, you can check it out here .
Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
Transcript
I’ve had a lot of discussions on my podcast where we haggle out timelines to AGI. Some guests think it’s 20 years away - others 2 years . Here’s an audio version of where my thoughts stand as of June 2025. If you want to read the original post, you can check it out here . Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
