AGI is still 30 years away — Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu
- Source
- dwarkesh.com
- Author
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Date
A rigorous counter-narrative from AI forecasters arguing AGI is decades out and the intelligence-explosion framing is flawed, while predicting explosive economic growth — useful for engineers planning around AI capability timelines rather than following hype.
- alignment — The work of making AI systems actually pursue what their builders and users intend, rather than something subtly or dangerously different.
- calibration — How well a model's confidence matches reality — a calibrated model saying "90% sure" is right about 90% of the time.
“It’s kind of like calling the Industrial Revolution a horsepower explosion.”
Tamay Besiroglu
“Nobody gets a job where they’re paid to book flights. That’s not a task.”
Ege Erdil
“But that doesn’t stop it from getting stuck in Mount Moon for 48 hours.”
Ege Erdil
“has a reasoning model ever come up with a math concept that even seems slightly interesting to a human mathematician? And I’ve never seen that.”
Ege Erdil
“I think if you could put the competences that the animals have into AI systems, that might just already get you to AGI already.”
Ege Erdil
- 00:00:00AGI will take another 3 decades
- 00:22:27Even reasoning models lack animal intelligence
- 00:45:04Intelligence explosion
- 01:00:57Ege & Tamay's story
- 01:06:24Explosive economic growth
- 01:33:00Will there be a separate AI economy?
- 01:47:08Can we predictably influence the future?
- 02:19:48Arms race dynamic
- 02:29:48Is superintelligence a real thing?
- 02:35:45Reasons not to expect explosive growth
- 02:49:00Fully automated firms
- 02:54:43Will central planning work after AGI?
- 02:58:20Career advice
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