Combined capex at five hyperscalers has grown 72% per year and could reach $770 billion in 2026 on trend. That spending determines how much compute will exist for frontier models.
Key takeaways · AI-distilled
Epoch fits combined Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle capex from Q2 2023 through Q4 2025 to a 72% annual growth rate, with a 90% confidence interval of 66%–78%.
The $770 billion figure for 2026 is conditional on that fitted trend continuing. Company statements and analyst projections anticipate rapid growth, but somewhat slower than this extrapolation.
To compare companies consistently, Epoch combines cash spending on property and equipment with new finance-lease assets from SEC filings, rather than using each company’s differently defined headline capex.
Finance-lease figures for companies without exact XBRL tags are approximate; operating leases are excluded, potentially understating investment. Companies describe AI as a driver but do not disclose its exact share of this spending.
