Ai Chip Supply Chain Constraints

Spare capacity in one stage of chipmaking cannot automatically relieve a shortage in another. Epoch AI estimates that in 2025 the four largest AI chip designers consumed about 90% of global advanced packaging capacity and high-bandwidth memory supply, but only about 12% of advanced logic chip production. Source.

An accelerator needs all three inputs, so the tightest stage constrains finished supply. Epoch argues logic was a softer limit because AI buyers could outbid other customers, while expanding packaging and memory requires new plants with long lead times. It also notes the limiting stage could change as newer chips move to the 3nm process. The estimates rest on inferred chip volumes and specifications rather than disclosed figures.